Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 19.994532 21.113379 22.288431 23.619158 25.090065 26.672832 28.513679
2026-02-01 18.066128 19.596050 21.279484 23.285854 25.634493 28.325789 31.686662
2026-02-08 16.536687 18.208467 20.097358 22.417105 25.228952 28.581822 32.970976
2026-02-15 16.038745 17.917166 20.094933 22.850520 26.312003 30.616557 36.550534
2026-02-22 15.535739 17.559756 19.956383 23.065654 27.092875 32.290435 39.803876
2026-03-01 14.732946 16.782811 19.244681 22.493533 26.792147 32.488713 41.016008
2026-03-08 13.623178 15.574960 17.934579 21.073609 25.269297 30.901066 39.477757
2026-03-15 13.298624 15.319706 17.797323 21.150057 25.730266 32.052268 42.056649
2026-03-22 13.033089 15.121477 17.715556 21.283851 26.263394 33.330323 44.961902
2026-03-29 12.695461 14.814773 17.475507 21.184923 26.453765 34.109382 47.148480
2026-04-05 12.511554 14.694782 17.468954 21.396154 27.089617 35.594939 50.694629
2026-04-12 12.126701 14.299149 17.080111 21.054452 26.890721 35.765135 51.953627
2026-04-19 11.652842 13.819337 16.622701 20.685297 26.766126 36.263080 54.331471
2026-04-26 11.222884 13.387472 16.219468 20.383298 26.742002 36.962108 57.334403
2026-05-03 10.697419 12.804267 15.578614 19.692676 26.051243 36.451076 57.794863
2026-05-10 10.567087 12.742671 15.648419 20.039556 27.011682 38.880352 64.984821
2026-05-17 10.390191 12.608228 15.606536 20.211842 27.698688 40.911016 71.937533
2026-05-24 10.028085 12.206116 15.167744 19.753416 27.296954 40.856364 73.821207
2026-05-31 9.472121 11.521874 14.305568 18.608322 25.668508 38.308806 68.807670
2026-06-07 9.317893 11.388655 14.226994 18.670246 26.099563 39.802095 74.825743
2026-06-14 9.186987 11.282498 14.181535 18.778544 26.615116 41.527109 82.130556
2026-06-21 9.009058 11.104267 14.023471 18.698477 26.789006 42.570899 87.855032
2026-06-28 8.911790 11.036131 14.023244 18.869374 27.425315 44.685142 98.029458